Madison Forum Speaker – Heath Garrett
Heath Garrett, Chief of Staff for Senator Johnny Isakson, spoke to Madison Forum members and guests on at the regular luncheon meeting June 11, 2007.
Mr. Garrett said when Michael informed him that he was forming a group based on James Madison and the concept of true public discourse and dialog; he knew it was something he wanted to be a part of, not only as a speaker, but as a participant in discussion and follow-up. He commended everyone involved with the Madison Forum for providing an opportunity to do this because of the importance of the old fashioned concept of dialog in discussion of serious topics.
Beginning his Washington update, Mr. Garrett said, since he had last spoken to us, we had a little something called an election in November which had pretty profound consequences for our country in more ways than one, and obviously that will be a big part of our discussion on immigration. In that election Republicans lost a good number of seats in the House and we lost a good number of seats in the Senate. We now find ourselves in the minority in the U.S. Senate. As of today we have 50 Democrats and 48 Republicans. With the unfortunate demise of our Senator Thomas last week, we dropped from 49 to 48. The Democrats went from 51 to 50 with the Senator who is actually stabilized and improving apparently with some indications that he may be back on the Democratic side in the fall. It will be interesting to see what will happen.
Obviously in the House, Mr. Garrett said, we had an election where we lost. It means a whole lot more in the House that we lost, because once you lose in the House, you have no influence whatsoever in the minority, absolutely zero influence in what goes on. In the Senate, what it means is we have a little bit of influence as long as we can hold 40 Republicans together with the threat of the filibuster, which, as many of you know, if you want to talk about how many true conservatives there are in the U.S. Senate, you can probably argue, depending on the issues, somewhere between 38 and 42 on any given day on any given issue. And so you see how precarious for those of you who would identify yourselves as true conservatives, how precarious the situation is in the Congress of the United States.
What that has done for the first six months in Washington, he said, is create gridlock. You’ve seen the reports lately – the Democrats have been unsuccessful in passing a single item on their legislative agenda for the political campaign of last year. That’s because we have been able to hold, only in the Senate, not the House. The House has passed everything. Everything on that agenda sailed through the house in the first six weeks. It’s only because we’ve been able to hold those 40 votes, and it’s been a different 40 votes every time, on shaping or stopping every major piece of initiative that the Democrats campaigned on last year.
Mr. Garrett said we lost that campaign for a number or reasons. Most importantly we lost it on ethics and morality. The Republicans lost the trust of the American people because a number of people, many of whom were heroes to some of you in this crowd, starting with Tom Delay, over the last decade had created a culture of corruption and hypocrisy in the United States Congress. We as Republicans in our world have to acknowledge that and understand that. That was the number one reason. If you go back and look at all the data now that’s come out about the election, the number one reason why we lost was because of the ethics and morality, because of the mood of the country on our right where we lost a large number of swing voters. There are 5% to 6% of true swing voters in this country. In 2004 President Bush won 79% of the swing vote. In the final analysis, in the election of 2004, he won it 60 to 40.
Mr. Garrett went on to say, of that 5% to 6% swing voter in 2006, just two years later, the Democratic candidates won that vote 70 to 30. So in a 24-month span, things flipped. That independent swing voter is 5% to6% of our country, and they literally will switch who they vote for on any given election ballot, and every two to four years they are just going to switch parties depending on who is in power and what the mood of the country is at that given point in time. They control the elections of the day at the national level and in what you call those swing seats. That’s why even in South Georgia where Bush was winning 65% of two Congressional races, we lost, in well mounted campaigns, to John Barrow and Jim Marshall because we lost independent swing voters even in those districts here in Georgia in 2006. That has tremendous political repercussions for the direction of the country. The good news is that the gridlock prevailed. Mr. Garrett said he is one of those who happens to feel that gridlock is good as long as you are stopping or shaping bad legislation. We’ve been able to do that to a point. But there are a number of items on the Democratic agenda that are coming down the pipeline. They were successful in attaching the minimum wage bill to the Iraq supplemental. We were able to get enough tax breaks for a couple of years to offset that cost to most small business. But that was simply something we were forced to accept in regard to what happened. That will be the first actual piece of their agenda they get passed. So it will be interesting to see how the repercussions come in the economy two years down the road. We’ve had to fight the rear guard action in regard to that. They passed ethics reform, but neither house can agree. The unknown feature there is the House is planning on having the Senate Democrats kill any kind of ethics reform that was supposed to be signed into law. Nothing’s happened there. He said they’ve actually passed, in their union piece of legislation, out of the House - it’s now before Johnny’s committee, the idea of taking away the secret ballot for unionization across the country. That’s not a very popular position, but they’re going to try to ram it through the Senate some time this summer. It will be interesting. He said Johnny was going to try to stop it in committee, but that’s about an 80-20 issue against them in principle, but it’s very much a part of the political calculation of the revenue from the unions during their campaign. That’s coming down the pipeline. There’s a cloture vote today on a no confidence vote on Alberto Gonzales. This is a very complicated issue. If you notice, many Republicans have not been very supportive of Alberto Gonzales. There’s a reason for that. The White House and the Attorney General’s Office have taken the same attitude toward Republican Senators that they did toward Democratic Senators in our historical and traditional role in helping select judges and U.S. Attorneys in our home states. And so, while Republicans have not been openly critical of Alberto Gonzales, nobody’s been openly supportive of him either. Much of what we’ve actually read or seen of the Democratic criticism of both how the White House has handled this and the Attorney General’s Office has handled it is also shared by Republicans. Many Republicans may vote against cloture because it’s a political exercise, but if it gets to a vote of no confidence on the floor, we may see a good number of Republican Senators join in a no confidence vote for Alberto Gonzales, because the AG and the Administration have actually stepped beyond the White House boundaries, and unfortunately, are beginning to do what we criticized Democrats for years about doing. Our argument is we’re not supposed to politicize the courts. Our goal is not to put conservative activists in those places. We believe as conservatives that if you actually interpret the Constitution according to its original meaning you don’t have to be a conservative activist. We’re going to get most of what we want accomplished from the Constitution. We’re not going to get everything, because the Constitution is not exactly conservative; however, unfortunately and AG’s office and the White House have gone and created all kinds of political litmus tests now for appointees over and above and beyond what the United States Senators and even Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson believe about an individual from Georgia. So it’s a frustrating time.
Mr. Garrett went on to say there’s an energy bill that’s being brought up by Senator Reed this week that has major potential repercussions for the country. The Republicans were cut out of this process. It’s going to be an effort to try to either reshape the legislation or to stop it. He said he doesn’t know if the Republicans have the 40 votes to stop it. He mentioned two major pieces of this legislation that will raise our rates in Georgia almost immediately. First and foremost they have mandatory café standards for automobiles and they’re high. It’s mandatory. There’s no flexibility for technology improvement innovation. There’s no flexibility for car companies that figure out a way to do things in a better way. There’s no flexibility in the standard. It’s mandatory. It will be extremely costly, and potentially put our big three out of business in the short term while they are in a very precarious situation.
Number two, Mr. Garrett said, is that they also have very specific high quotas for renewable energy. But they are limiting their focus on renewable energy to solar and wind power. It’s very beneficial to the northeast given their current status and their lack of investment, their infrastructure over the last 20-25 years. They want to do it on the backs of the southeastern ratepayers. It doesn’t really benefit or help us. He said that’s a short oversimplification of that bill, but those two are deal killers for our senators, so they will be fighting an energy bill on the floor in the coming week.
Mr. Garrett said there are going to be a number of fights on judges. It doesn’t think there are going to be many appointed. Once through the August recess the Democrats may let one or two district judges go here and there, until they can come up with some agreement, to make it look like the Republicans are getting a few judges appointed and they’re not stonewalling everybody. But no controversial judge will probably be confirmed from here on out until after the election.
Also, he said, the tax relief packages of 2001 and 2001 begin to come off next year. The Democrats budget that they passed with a blueprint shows that they actually calculate all those packages running out and not being reaffirmed which will have significant implications for the economy over time. The Republicans will begin that fight, hopefully, in the fall, but they are at a huge disadvantage politically in that regard. And we all know that the President is now well into his lame duck status. Mr. Garrett said that while we all love the President for his principled position we have to realize there was only one President in the 20th Century who was popular in the last two years of his second term – FDR.
On the subject of the war in Iraq, Mr. Garrett mentioned the very sobering speech a couple of weeks ago. With the last troops coming into Iraq over the next 30 days to complete what everybody terms the surge we have to expect an up-tick in casualties because we all are unfortunately, maybe for the first time, taking the fight to our enemies in the most difficult terrain for the first time in that war. And, anybody who is a student of military strategy history knows, that when we start to go in to that territory and that terrain, when we let them build up institutions over the last 18-24 months because we’ve had both hands tied behind our backs for political and for military reasons, we’re going to start to fight, but we’re going to have to gird our loins for an up-tick in casualties and an up-tick in fighting in that regard. It was a very sobering speech, but got very little coverage probably because he gave it the same weekend that immigration hit the news media, but he’s trying to prepare the country for that. He said General Petraeus is doing an excellent job of changing the way we do business in Iraq, and it will be interesting to see whether or not we as a country or whether the congress has the political will to sustain this for six to nine months, give it a chance to see if it changes the dynamics of the politics and the military reality on the ground in Iraq. He said Johnny remains firmly committed to the principles of staying there. The one thing that was true in all the testimony of over 45 experts over a three week period, no matter how conservative or liberal it was, in front of the Foreign Relations Committee in January, was that if we pull out of Iraq the potential for disaster is much greater for spillover into the region. And, that civil war, not only in Iraq, but in the broader region is obviously not in our national security interests.
Moving to the subject of immigration, Mr. Garrett said most of us have asked the question – why is Johnny Isakson involved with this horrible, no good, terrible, horrendous, very bad bill. He said Johnny was somewhat of a hero on this legislation last year when the Kennedy bill hit the floor and was being debated in the Republican dominated Senate. It passed the Senate last year with 55 Republicans in the United States Senate. What Johnny Isakson fought for and lost was the border security first principle. He formed it in the form of an amendment where he actually created the principles of the trigger that said before anything else in this act goes forward we’re going to have border security and he defined it around five key measurable objective standards. At that point in time everybody who was for border security first in the country thought Johnny was a hero, and then here we go a year later faced with a very similar situation and a very different political context and, because of a picture, a lot of people are saying – what in the world happened to my United States Senator who was for border security first. Mr. Garret said he didn’t think anything has changed in principle with Johnny. What has happened is the political context is changed, but nobody is paying attention to that. As background, Mr. Garrett said first of all even though the Democrats were able to pass last year their bill, which anybody would know is far worse than the bill which was being debated over the past three weeks, with 55 Republicans in the Senate at the time.
Conditions in the Senate did not get worse for that bill over the last six months, they got better. With the Democrats taking control, with Harry Reid in charge, the prospects of that bill sailing through the Senate were dramatically increased in November of last year. In January of this year, Harry Reid came to both Senate caucuses and said “we are going to pull up, before Memorial Day, the Kennedy bill from last year and vote on it. If anybody wants to work on a different bill, you had better come up with your suggestions and work on it now. That’s my deadline. I’m pulling it up, and I’ve got the votes to pass it.” Mr. Garrett said there was no dispute that Reid has the votes, because it passed last year with 55 Republicans. Where they were able to stop the bill last year because of Johnny’s amendment, they were at least able to get the highlighted focus on border security, go to the House, and the House stopped it. With the Republicans in the minority with no clout, Nancy Pelosi would pass the Kennedy bill in a heartbeat. The only reason she is not talking about passing the bill is because she thinks it’s too conservative, and she wants to set the standard of 70 votes for Republicans. That’s because her caucus, dominated by the liberal left, thinks this current proposal is too conservative.
That’s the political context in which Johnny Isakson said – “all right, I want my principles of border security first included in anything that’s going to be discussed”. Then began the negotiation. Isakson and Chambliss were invited to the table for discussions on a few key aspects. They were not invited to be day to day participants in different meetings. In reality what was happening is, Kennedy was meeting with some people trying to figure out what they want. Chertoff and Gutierrez, and Kyl, and Cornyn, and Graham, and McCain, and all the other folks were meeting with different Senators at different times on things. They knew that Republicans probably had 40 votes on the border security first trigger principles that they had been fighting for the whole time. In an ideal world, Johnny Isakson believed they ought to be segregated bills. We ought to do the enforcement mechanism under current laws right now. We could do that. Or, at least segregate the bills and do the border security point as a stand alone. Mr. Garrett asked – why aren’t we doing that? He said, simple reason. The Democrats are in charge, and they are not going to do that. You just can’t argue that point. They have said flat out they are not going to segregate the bills, and they are not going to do any of the border security measurements, authorizations, appropriations, mandatory spending, employer certification. They were not going to do any of that unless the Republicans gave them something. And so that’s what this, “quote”, proposal is all about. And so it’s a matter of Johnny being in a position of either fighting for his principles, given the political reality on the ground in Washington, DC, or standing back and taking shots at it. He said reasonable people can disagree as to whether or not he should have just stood back and taken pot shots at the bill. The risk of that is three other options. And so the roll of the dice is, don’t participate, and the trigger wouldn’t be in there. We might go back to the Kennedy bill. They might just pass all of that. Or, fight for your principles. That’s what Chambliss and Isakson did. They fought for their principles.
Obviously, there’s a lot of debate about the individual aspects of the bill, but that’s the WHY that Johnny Isakson was involved. He was invited to the table to try to get the Isakson trigger in there, to get the border security measures, to toughen up penalties on employers, to make sure there’s no new pathway to citizenship, to try to limit things. The Republicans did not get what they wanted. They didn’t get 100% of what they wanted. Mr. Garrett said he believes they got 75% to 80% of what they wanted in the bill, and they are all arguing about that 20% to 25%, all the ideal stuff that’s out there. Unfortunately, they are arguing in a political context over which they have no control. The Democrats are in charge.
And finally, Mr. Garrett said, if this bill dies, and that’s a big if, status quo may reign for a few months. If the Democrats decide that it’s to their political advantage to pass the Kennedy bill, know they’ve got the votes in the Senate and the House, and they’ve probably got a President who will sign it. So that’s risk number one. The greater risks, which are risk number two and number three, are to stay with status quo, and we’ve got to understand, the Democratic majority in Congress is not going to authorize, appropriate, or do anything to increase enforcement of the current law. Republicans fundamentally disagree with that. They think it’s a terrible way to run a country, but that’s the political reality of the Democratic Party and their stance on this issue. That’s risk number two. So we’re going to go another two years with an estimated two million or more illegals per year for the next two years. And then we get to what Mr. Garrett calls the January 21st, 2009 scenario. Rush Limbaugh says there is a 70% chance of Hillary Clinton being elected President in 2008. So, he said, think about 2009 – Democratically controlled House, Democratically controlled Senate, Hillary Clinton as President of the United States. The roll of the dice is that we go two years with, as best case scenario status quo, and then we get the worst case scenario of all, which is a bill far worse than the Kennedy bill last year, because, remember, Kennedy even had to negotiate last year with some Republicans. At we think this year is proposed amnesty, wait until they give them all three branches of government. That’s the political context. That’s the WHY.
He said most of us know that Johnny and Saxby were not locked down on all the interesting proposals that are in there. Voters have had a seat at the table during that last three years of debate and have had full access to Johnny’s office. Johnny Isakson has been a leader. He has not lost his mind on this. He just has a reasonable disagreement about the tactics on how we should go about trying to accomplish the best principled stance he can get in the current framework.
Mr. Garrett’s final plea was that we also think about the political tactics of what we are doing. The two guys who represent us here in the State of Georgia actually agree with us 90% to 95% both in principle and practice. So we should engage in reasonable dialog with these two Senators who are among the top ten conservatives in the Senate. He suggested that there is a more reasonable way to make our point than organizing against the Senators and locking down on a position before the final bill and the final outcome. He said we have to work together to accomplish these things rather than yell and scream and call the Senators bad names. That doesn’t advance the dialog. He also said mass faxes generally get discounted. What matters is the individual message with a name, address, and phone number.
Mr. Garrett’s final point was that there are two major amendments that are non-negotiable for the 45 Republicans that voted to not allow cloture to move forward on the bill. One of them is the mandatory expenditure component amendment which actually takes any discretion away from the Executive Branch on the expenditures and makes fully operational the very specific and measurable border security principles outlined in the bill. There is no argument that the President has no credibility on this. He could have been doing this all along. And they are going to go after a number of other amendments to enforce the border. He said the Republicans are working hard on all those principles and will continue to do so.